Gaddafi's fall and the African Union

Should Muammar Gaddafi's government fall - and things are looking like it will - this will mean an end to mass murder, an end to political oppression in Libya - but also and end to much of the African Union.

The African Union, created in 2001 by Gaddafi himself, unites 53 African states. It is modeled on the European Union, has an African Union Commission in Addis Abeba, Ethopia, and a Pan-African Parliament in Midrand, South Africa. Gaddafi's objectives in launching the African Union are questionable - after failed Libyan expansion attempts to Chad and financial and military involvement in many other countries, his aims were certainly not only generous. In 2009, he served a year as African Union chairman himself; after missing reelection, he "criticized the AU for "tiring" him with long meetings and making declarations and reports without asking him." But Gaddafi provided 15% of the African Union membership fees, according to Geoffrey York from the Globe and Mail. Below, a chart of what else he financed.

Picture Source: theglobeandmail.com

Besides giving funding, the Libyan revolution leader was a fervent supporter of the Pan-African movement in ideological terms (he had his reasons, having failed to win favor of the Arab League countries, to the point that he hissed in 1998 that the "Arab world is finished"). Laura Seay, a political scientist at Morehouse College in Atlanta who specializes in African politics, esteems that “without Gadhafi, the pan-African movement is dead.” She does not see anybody with the personal conviction and the financial resources to fill the gap. The African Union is already facing financial difficulties; without Gaddafi's money and support, it may be difficult to sustain much of its activity.

Maybe the EU could give a hand to the African Union?

For a strong EU condemnation of the murder in Libya

During the Tiananmen Square massacre in China in early June 1989, the Chinese army charged into a group of 100,000 protesters gathered in the center of Beijing - between 400 and 3000 protesters were killed, according to different statistics. Others estimate that more than 3000 protesters lost their lives.
The European Community issued a statement on June 6th (not available) and strongly condemned the "brutal repression taking place in China" at the European Council meeting on 26./27. June 1989 in Madrid:

"The European Council requests the Chinese authorities to respect human rights and to take into account the hopes for freedom and democracy deeply felt by the population [...] In the present circumstances, the European Council thinks it necessary to adopt the following measures:

raising of the issue of human rights in China in the appropriate international fora; asking for the admittance of independent observers to attend the trials and to visit the prisons

interruption by the Member States of the Community of military cooperation and an embargo on trade in arms with China

suspension of bilateral ministerial and high level contacts

postponement by the Community and its Member States of new cooperation projects,

reduction of programs of cultural, scientific and technical cooperation to only those activities that might maintain a meaning in the present circumstances"

During the last few days, more than 100 protesters have died in Libya, maybe even more than 200. Allegedly, snipers fired into the crowd, intentionally killing individual demonstrators. A tank intentionally crushed two demonstrators to death in their car. Facebook and Twitter have been blocked, international reporters are forbidden to report from Libya. Onlookers fear the worst.

For the European Union, Libya has an important role as a watchdog. Gaddafi makes sure that the number of migrants flowing into the EU remains low. Esther Saoub, German correspondent in Cairo, believes that the EU will remain silent for some time in view of the protests in Libya: "Should the courageous demonstrators, who have these days dared to raise their voice, hope for support from Europe, their hope is probably in vain. Of course, Muammar Al Gaddafi is not popular with anybody in Europe save his friend Silvio Berlusconi, but since when are door guards ever popular? Still, nobody would have the idea to organize entry into an elite disco through grassroots democracy. Why should the EU be the first to have this idea?" (My translation)

Given the situation, the EU should be as courageous towards Libya as it has been towards China in 1989. So far, nothing has been issued by the High Representative yet, neither on the pages of the EEAS, nor via Twitter. There is nothing that excuses the intentional murder of citizens, and there is nothing that excuses a cowardly EU statement on this murder. After the events in Egypt and the sudden love of EU politicians for human rights once Mubarak had fallen, everything but a strong condemnation of the murder in Libya would be hypocrisy. And it would show how much less important human rights are to us today than they were in 1989. Be courageous, Cathy Ashton.


Update (20/02/11, 6:25 p.m.): Cathy Ashton has just issued two statements. One on the elections in Uganda, one on women's shelters in Afghanistan...
Update (21/02/11, 12:30 a.m.): The declaration on Libya is out. "Extremely concerned", "We condemn the repression against peaceful demonstrators", "immediately refrain from further use of violence", "human rights [...] must be respected and protected", "immediately cease the blocking of public access to the internet and mobile phone networks", "legitimate aspirations and demands of the people for reform" - it's about as courageous as the Tiananmen declaration. An international conference on North Africa is to follow. Will economic sanctions be employed?
Update (21/02/11, 9.30 a.m.): Also read reactions to Ashton's declaration here and here.
Update (22/02/11, 8.34 p.m.): EU suspends negotiations on EU-Libya Framework Agreement.