Is Martin Schulz emerging as a new leftist leader in Europe?

On the morning after François Hollande was elected president of France, Martin Schulz sat in his office at 7h50 and gave an interview to Deutschlandradio. Then his press team sat down to write an opinion peace for Project Syndicate. Not only François Hollande wants to move away from austerity, Schulz said. The European Commission under Barroso is also convinced that more growth cannot come about by austerity alone. And the European Parliament, with Schulz, an (albeit impartial) social democrat at the top, is also coming out in favor of less austerity.

As a German commentator observed on Sunday, the word "super election day" several years ago meant elections in two or three large German states. Today, it means elections in France, Greece and Serbia (and Schleswig-Holstein). In an integrated European economy, national policies can no longer be shaped in isolation; policy-making has to shift from the national to the European level to remain efficient. Mathew suggested that we have seen the emergence of a truly European debate on economic policy in the last few months - more austerity against more growth programs instead of more Europe against less Europe. I think he is right. And now that Hollande's rise to power shifts European policy-making from austerity to growth, the president of the European Parliament appears well-placed to broker and negotiate this transition within the European institutions. He could emerge as new leftist leader in European policy-making, if not in front of the cameras then at least in the hallways of the institutions.

The next European Council will have growth programs on its agenda. And Martin Schulz has been fighting for the inclusion of the EP president in the negotiations of the fiscal pact. It will be interesting to see how much he will use his position and his intra-party networks to help broker a growth program in Europe.

And then? National elections in Germany are next year and if the European mood, inspired by Hollande's election, turns toward growth programs, then the German elections might sweep the former social democrat finance minister Peer Steinbrück, an efficient pro-European, to power. Might be a very interesting constellation for social democrat governance in Europe: Hollande - Steinbrück - Schulz.

Germany enters consensual politics

The elections in the state of North-Rhine Westphalia on Sunday might not have had as much coverage as the UK elections last week, but they may turn out almost as important. In North-Rhine Westphalia, the center-right government composed of CDU and FDP fell as the CDU went from 44,8% to 34,6%, and the FDP - although it went from 6,2% (2005) to 6,7% in North-Rhine Westphalia - badly lost in comparison with the national elections in 2009 where it obtained 14,6%. The Social Democrat SPD slightly lost from 37,1% to 34,5% while the Greens are the big winners of the elections, almost doubling their score from 6,2% to 12,1%.

Source: tagesschau.de

Now the parties are in negotiations. A black-yellow-green coalition has been ruled out by the Liberals and the Leftist party would never be asked to enter into coalition with the CDU, meaning that every possible formation necessarily has to include the SPD.
The SPD is happy about its electoral success and would like to send the minister-president who will be in charge of the regional government. Since the coalition party with the highest percentage gets to send the minister-president, this would exclude a grand coalition, and the SPD is currently hoping for a red-green-yellow formation including the liberals or a red-red-green formation including the Leftists. However, the liberals have made the election promise not to go together with the SPD and the Greens, and they have a record of sticking to their electoral promises (except for tax cuts). And it would be plain political suicide for the SPD to coalition with the Leftists after the huge political scandal in the state of Hesse where the party was stupid enough to dare the game.So in the end, my educated guess is that it will be a grand coalition, meaning that the SPD has to sacrifice the post of the minister-president. Incumbent minister-president Jürgen Rüttgers (CDU) lost 10.2% and had to admit a range of political scandals in the run-up to the elections, so my guess is that he will eventually have to cede his post. Former integration and equal opportunities minister Armin Laschet would be a good candidate for the post since he could moderate between CDU and SPD. I believe that he will become the next minister-president.

Much more importantly however, the regional elections upset the balance in the second German chamber, the Bundesrat, where all states are represented by a number of voices according to their size (see chart). With North-Rhine Westphalia ("Nordrhein-Westfalen" in the chart) moving from black-yellow to black-red, center-left parties are represented in 10 of 16 regional governments and control 38 of 69 votes (32 of which are controlled by the SPD alone).

Source: tagesschau.de

According to the basic law, delegations have to cast their vote unanimously. A failure to find an accord within the state delegation leads to the vote becoming invalid. Since motions can only be passed with an absolute majority of more than 50%, abstentions will automatically be counted as a "no". Delegations are normally supposed to represent their state rather than their party, but the issue remains that the center-left now has the possibility to block legislation if they act as a union. If they now gets their acts together, they can be a powerful force. They can block unpopular legislation coming from the center-right government.

This means that the government will have to seek the consent of some of the opposition parties at times and lead to a more consensual style of politics than before. No agreement can be done any more without the consent of at least one opposition party. This may make the system less transparent, as a lot of negotiation, bullying and lobbying will go on behind the scenes. There will be less open conflicts between the government and the opposition. On the other hand, this may be an option for the center-left to regain its power. It only has to do what we've been urging the EU to all the time: to act as a common body.

Some thoughts about the German election campaign

It's only a little more than a month until a new parliament will be elected in the largest state in Europe. European politicians are awaiting the election results in Germany before the European Parliament can approve the designated commissioners.

Germany is currently experiencing a very astonishing development. You could almost say that the voters have no clue what they really want. In the pre-election survey "DeutschlandTrend", the journalist Jörg Schönenborn observes that "the anger about banks and financial actors, the renewed feeling of injustice and the increasing wish for a more solidary society are normally signs for a [...] leftist majority. However, in the judgement of parties and persons, this is currently not reflected at all" (my translation). Quite the opposite, the more effort the SPD puts into its election campaign, the more the number of supporters seem to drop.

Before blaming the voters, it has to be said that the parties are not making it easy for them either. Over the last years in the grand coalition, it has become more and more difficult to divide the most important claims of SPD and CDU/CSU apart. While many citizens believe that the SPD has turned away from its social-democrat roots, the CDU has begun to talk about a social market economy. Not many of the common achievements in the grand coalition were attributed to either party and both sides are now trying to show what they have achieved over the last few years.

The young Green politician Jan Seifert believes that a new grand coalition may mean a further drop in popular support as voters perceive they don't have a real choice in the elections any more. Likewise, he believes that this could lead to a stronger radicalization of the small parties who lure the frustrated voters into their own camp with populist promises. I could add that those who vote for the small parties in order to end the grand coalition will lead to a weak SPD and CDU, which again will leave only triple coalitions (ruled out by all parties) or another grand coalition as an option.

What very much frightens me - and there I have to blame the citizens - is the hostility that voters show toward the election campaign in general. Politicians have to justify why the political parties - accepted vehicles for the aggregation of political ideas and the finding of solutions - dare to voice their proposals for the future of the country to the sovereign. For a week, the so-called "affair" about SPD minister Ursula Schmidt's business car has caused more attention than the political proposals of the parties. And in my view the German media have to take a share of the blame for that kind of coverage.

Final thought, I haven't seen any real campaigning emerge yet. Neither of the big parties has a real star. The CDU is trying to push the popular economics minister Theodor zu Guttenberg, but sooner or later in this campaign he will have to show his profile more clearly than he did so far. Commentators hold against him that he can say a lot of beautiful words without making a statement, but I believe that won't get him through the campaign.
The SPD has a few young talents, but I haven't seen them voice their ideas very clearly yet. We may have to wait a little more until the Steinmeier team really kick-starts.

Secondly, neither of the big parties has voiced a very clear campaign topic yet. The CDU is trying to gain voters with the promise of a vague tax reduction while the SPD is speaking out against nuclear power plants and in favor of renewable energy. I wonder if the topic of energy can be sharpened so much that there will be a public debate about it. Clearly, with the Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen coming up in December and the recent Desertec initiative, there is a lot to talk about. But the issue will have to be framed by politicians and the media in a way as to appeal to the daily life of the citizens.

I think the next few weeks will be interesting one way or another. It'll be exciting to see what topics will interest the citizens the most...

The Karlsruhe decision: end of the European dream?

In a recent editorial of Le Monde, the reputed political journalist Arnaud Leparmentier interprets the decision of the Constitutional Court as Germany's final word to European integration. Successfully rebuilt after 1945 and successfully reunited by 2009, Germany no longer needs Europe, European integration or the Franco-German axis, says Leparmentier. Germans have become happy, indifferent and inward-looking.

On a personal level, he sees the shift from Joschka Fischer to Angela Merkel and young economic minister Theodor von und zu Guttenberg as emblematic for the shift in German mentality. In 2002 there were heated debates about a Germany that had to be defended in Afghanistan. In 2009, the citizens' own pockets have become the main topic. Hence the spectacular rise of the economic hardliner Guttenberg to being the second most popular politician in Germany.
Where Guttenberg showed no solidarity for the domestic producer Opel or the mail order company Quelle, one may indeed ask how much solidarity Germans would bring up for Eastern Europe, Italy or Iceland. As one of the few European countries which consolidates its finances instead of pouring money into the market, Germany currently impedes imports from the rest of Europe. Finally, with the decision of the constitutional court, Leparmentier finds that the country has now put a resounding halt to any further political integration as well.

One may answer to Leparmentier that the politics of austerity is merely a phenomenon of the right. The SPD is committed to deficit spending if need be, and has even ridden over SPD finance minister Peer Steinbrück in this matter. On a political level, the SPD has criticized the populist stance of the CSU, currently abusing the Karlsruhe decision for election purposes.

In my view, Germany has not lost its European vocation; if any, the current proponents of the right may have lost it. Parliament will meet in the middle of the election campaign to vote the law giving the Bundestag a greater say in European matters at the request of the Constitutional Court. If the political debate about the European Union continues as it is at the moment, it may even become an important topic in the campaign. And then we will see which party is committed to the European project and which one isn't.

The irony is that Europe might be extensively debated during the national elections while nobody cared about it during the European elections.